Reading your own numbers without fooling yourself

The traffic you are looking at today was earned by work you shipped roughly a quarter ago, which means most people grade the wrong homework.

One month in this dataset shipped nothing at all and grew 61%. Another shipped 47 changes and grew less. Search data arrives late, moves for reasons you did not cause, and swings enough day to day that a 40% drop can mean nothing. These guides cover computing your own noise threshold, what average position actually describes, and when a change is worth reacting to.

The 5 guides in this topic

The evidence

The first 90 days of a new site, month by month, with the work shipped beside it: What a site with no authority actually earns in its first three months, why month one looks like failure, and the month that shipped nothing and grew 61%.

The tool

Run it on your own export

Other topics